Insights

We present our 2023 outlook for core markets, emerging markets and global credit.

As we look towards 2023, it is easy to be overwhelmed by the broader permutations of possible outcomes. But things don’t appear so dire in Asia. Inflation, which is effectively a value transfer from net consumers to net producers, may continue to benefit India and pockets of ASEAN due to favourable demographics and rising productivity.

We believe that the benign macro backdrop should remain supportive for credit fundamentals in 2023. The fiscal deficits of Asian economies are expected to gradually narrow as the need for pandemic support decreases.

This month we discuss the prospects of Japanese equities remaining well-supported into 2023 thanks to robust exports and inbound demand. We also explain why the markets are looking beyond a dip in Japan’s 3Q GDP, focusing instead on the prospect of growth resuming.

As geopolitical risks and globalisation are reassessed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and war in Europe, we believe that Japan stands to benefit as more companies refocus on their home markets.

The just-released 3Q CY22 data on aggregate corporate profits in Japan was very positive, with the overall corporate recurring pre-tax profit margin hitting a record high on a four quarter average.

China’s bond market is exhibiting low correlation to other asset classes, displaying historically lower volatility, enjoying continued internationalisation of the renminbi and benefitting from the country being included in globally recognised indices.

This month, Fed Chair Powell seemed hellbent on quashing any last hope of a pivot or at least slowing the pace of rate hikes sometime soon. But this crushing blow to hope helped sow the seeds of an eyewatering rally when one inflation print showed some promise—hence, the manic cycle continues.

The ASEAN region fared better on the whole in October thanks to gains by the Philippines and Malaysia; Hong Kong and Taiwan stocks were volatile while the China market continued sliding.

We discuss Japan’s recent currency market interventions from an equity market perspective; we also share our thoughts on steadily rising inflation after a surge in the September core CPI.