Insights

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

Global equity outlook 2025

Throughout history, equity investors have benefitted from maintaining a long-term view and an optimistic outlook on humanity's ability to prevail in the face of adversity. This might once again be the case, meaning that the biggest risk might be not having exposure to the highest quality earnings streams through a diversified portfolio of global equities.

Global fixed income outlook 2025

We believe that a changing political environment could present opportunities across asset classes in 2025, with fixed income in particular poised to benefit as markets adjust to more realistic inflation expectations.

Future Quality Insights: pandemic memories and ongoing impact on companies

We believe that investors should strive for a diversified global portfolio of quality companies that can thrive in an environment where the cost of capital may be higher than previously expected. Our collective experience of the pandemic reminds us that such an approach is a good idea.
We increased the overweight to growth assets given that economic data remains resilient against falling inflation and as global central banks lower interest rates. Regarding defensive assets, we have been relatively negative on sovereign bonds, and despite the rate-cutting cycle underway, we maintain this view.
During the first Trump presidency, China outperformed the S&P 500 and all the perceived beneficiaries of "China Plus One". While history may not be repeated, it is clear that China's domestic policy and market environment will become significant factors during Trump's second presidency.
We have adopted a more cautious stance on Thai bonds with the Bank of Thailand not expected to ease policy further following its interest rate cut in October. Elsewhere in the region, the reappointment of Sri Mulyani Indrawati as Indonesia's finance minister provides a positive medium-term outlook for Indonesian government bonds

Can the momentum shift on plastic pollution?

The highly anticipated Global Plastics Treaty carries high hopes as it will be the first attempt at forming a global legally binding instrument to address plastic pollution across its entire lifecycle. Tackling plastic pollution will be a long, bumpy road requiring international cooperation, stringent policies and significant financial investment to drive effective solutions.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in November was largely expected. However, Fed Chair Powell's comments pointed to changes in language, suggesting a shift towards a more uncertain policy, with inflation and employment trends influencing future rate adjustments.

As with the other markets, Japanese equities reacted immediately to Donald Trump's US presidential election win. The immediate election impact is expected to fade relatively quickly, with market focus turning to the trade policies Trump may pursue upon his return to the White House.

Balancing Act: Global Multi-Asset Quarterly (Q3 2024)

Volatility dominated risk markets in the early part of the July-September quarter, while perceptions of the US employment environment also had an impact. Over the quarter, we kept an overweight position on growth assets and maintained a neutral position on defensive assets.