Volatility across global markets has picked up in recent months following an abnormally long period of stability and strong returns across asset classes.
The Japanese equity market fell in March, with both the TOPIX (w/dividends) and the Nikkei 225 (w/dividends) dropping 2.04% on-month.
Despite recent volatility, we see the rally in Asian equity markets being well supported by both positive structural reform and increasing economic activity across the region.
Japanese stocks were not spared the global selloff in early February. While we would not be surprised to see volatility persist as market conditions normalise, we continue to expect healthy returns for risk assets such as equities.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been trimming its bond purchases lately, fuelling speculation that the central bank may wind back its monetary stimulus this year.
The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index returned 7.6% in USD terms in January, amid optimism about solid economic growth and corporate earnings. China's solid stock market gain was underpinned by the financials, energy and real estate sectors.
The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (AxJ) Index returned 2.7% in USD terms in December.
Going forward, a robust global economy and well telegraphed withdrawal of monetary stimulus in advanced economies provides a good back-drop for export-oriented Asian economies.
The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (AxJ) Index returned 0.6% in USD terms in November.
The Japanese equity market rose in October, with the TOPIX (w/dividends) climbing 5.45% and the Nikkei 225 (w/dividends) rising 8.16%.
The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (AxJ) Index returned 4.7% in USD terms in October, outperforming the MSCI World Index which returned 1.9%.
The Japanese equity market moved upwards in September, with the TOPIX (w/dividends) climbing 4.34% on-month and the Nikkei 225 (w/dividends) rising 4.28%.
The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (AxJ) Index fell by 0.1% in US dollar (USD) terms, underperforming the MSCI AC World Index which returned 2.2%. Profit-taking and currency weakness relative to the USD pressured returns in September.
The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (AxJ) Index rose by 1.3% in US dollar (USD) terms, outperforming the MSCI AC World Index and bringing year-to-date returns to 31.1%. This was the eighth straight month of positive returns.
The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index rose by 5.3% in US dollar terms, outperforming the MSCI AC World index and bringing year-to-date returns to 29.4%. This was the seventh straight month of positive returns.
In a survey conducted by the Nikkei in March 2017, 80% of respondent companies indicated that they were either planning or considering the implementation of productivity enhancing investments. Furthermore, more than 70% of respondent companies indicated that they would invest in productivity enhancing technology to address excessively long employee working hours.
The MSCI Asia ex Japan (AxJ) Index rose by 1.6% in US dollar (USD) terms. Year-to-date (YTD), the index returned 22.8%, outperforming MSCI World by over 12%.
In the Japanese equities market, high dividend strategies have significantly outperformed other strategies. We believe that – in a low growth, low interest rate environment where investors yearn for yield – these strategies will continue to outperform.
Following four years of intense consultation and three failed attempts, MSCI has just added China A-Shares into its international indices. We view this as expected and in some ways, long overdue. Although the initial size of the inclusion is symbolic in nature, the implications are far reaching.
MSCI Asia ex Japan (AxJ) gained 4.7% in USD terms, outperforming the MSCI AC World and MSCI Emerging Markets Indices. The results of the French presidential elections buoyed sentiment and outweighed patchy economic growth data.
We believe inflation will pick up gradually in the second half of 2017, in which case the rational expectations of Japanese consumers are likely to shift towards anticipation of even higher inflation. Higher inflation expectations are precisely what BOJ Governor Kuroda has been seeking to achieve. Therefore such a development would be positive for the Japanese equity market.
MSCI Asia ex Japan (AxJ) was up another 2.2% in USD terms, outperforming the MSCI AC World. All AxJ markets ended higher in April. Robust economic data from China offset concerns over President's Trump's ability to pass through sweeping corporate tax cuts in the US.
MSCI Asia ex Japan (AxJ) was up 3.3% in USD terms, outperforming MSCI AC World. All Asian markets rose over the month, with gains led by India and Korea. The Indian Rupee was also the best-performing currency in March. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), as widely expected.
MSCI Asia ex Japan (AxJ) was up 3.4% in USD terms, marginally outperforming MSCI AC World. Absolute returns were positive for all AxJ markets except the Philippines. The Taiwan Dollar (TWD) was the best performing currency in AxJ followed by the Korean Won and Indian Rupee. Buoyed by the partial unwind of the post-election Trump-trade, gold was the best performing commodity.
Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) equities returned 6.2% in US Dollar (USD) terms, outperforming MSCI World. Singapore, Hong Kong and Chinese equities outperformed while Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand lagged. Asian currencies generally strengthened against the USD over the month.
Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) equities returned -2.0% in US Dollar (USD) terms, underperforming MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets (EM). Currencies across AxJ generally weakened against the dollar following the Federal Reserve's (Fed’s) decision to hike rates. Meanwhile, Gold declined 2.2% while oil jumped 8.66% month-on-month.
Global Equity - Asia ex-Japan Equity - Japan equity
This PDF is a compilation of 2017 market outlook reports by three of our equity teams.
We believe that in an increasingly uncertain world, Japan’s less uncertain market will provide a compelling opportunity for serious investors.
The phrase “lower for longer” could well become unfashionable very quickly after years of central banks combating the forces of deflation and wishing for inflation instead.
The cumulative positioning of investors in companies and asset classes that are deemed safe in a “lower for longer” environment is undergoing a significant test at present.
Asia ex-Japan equities returned -2.9% in US Dollar (USD) terms, underperforming MSCI World. US president-elect Donald Trump's stance on the repeal of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and a domestic US focus at the expense of foreign trade has initially been perceived as negative for Asia, although there remains much uncertainty with regard to US policy going forward.
Asia ex-Japan equities returned -1.5% in US Dollar (USD) terms, outperforming the MSCI World which declined by 1.9%. Crude oil prices finished the month down as OPEC members failed to reach a conclusive deal on supply, while political developments in US and ASEAN were key drivers of markets during the month.
"Find growth and you will find performance" was our Asian Equity investment mantra in early 2016 as the world grappled with slowing growth and lethargy with monetary experimentaton in low and depressed interest rates.
Asia ex-Japan equities rose in September, returning 1.6% in US Dollar (USD) terms and outperforming both the MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets indices. Risk appetite remained healthy following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged and a more favourable US presidential debate outcome.
Asian markets extended their rally into August. Asian stocks were supported by a robust reporting season where earnings were mostly in line with consensus expectations.
We continue to see good value in Asia ex-Japan equities for long-term investors. Asia still has considerable room at both the monetary and fiscal levels to stimulate economies if needed and governments appear willing to act on reforms and infrastructure investment.
We continue to see good value in Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities for long-term investors. We continue to advocate that Asia is ultimately a net beneficiary of lower-for-longer commodity prices and offers significant growth opportunities led by infrastructure development, albeit contingent on positive government action.
This report looks at the Japanese Stewardship Code and its impact on Japanese companies' approach to ROE. It also introduces the Nikko AM URAP Index. URAP stands for “Upside in ROE at an Attractive Price”.
In light of the significant volatility ensuing from the results of the EU Referendum in the UK, we share our initial thoughts on the evolving situation as well as provide an update on the strategy you are invested or have an interest in and the implications of the event on the broader investment landscape in Japan.
Asia ex Japan equities declined by 1.3% in USD terms in May, largely on the back of currency weakness.